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Polls, explained likeyou are at the counter.

A limited series of visual essays on how polling models work, how they fail, and what they can teach us about the 2026 midterms.

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Who's ahead in the polls?

How this model works

Democrats lead by 6.9 points

D
48.4%
R
41.6%

As of

Tiny Model

Silver Bulletin
Weighted polling margin with a shaded rough uncertainty range. Positive margins indicate a Democratic lead; negative margins indicate a Republican lead. Use arrow keys to inspect dates. Press Escape to dismiss the readout without changing the selected date. The dashed gray line is Silver Bulletin's published average. Each series stops at its own last available date; the shaded interval belongs to Tiny Model only.