Tiny Model, Big Clarity

Between now and the midterm elections on November 03, 2026, we will be taking you behind the scenes with us as we build our own election model from scratch. Yea, you read that right.

If you have spent the last few election cycles staring at the polls and wondering if anyone actually knows what they are doing anymore, welcome, you are in good company. Between now and the midterm elections on November 03, 2026, we will be taking you behind the scenes with us as we build our own election model from scratch. Yea, you read that right.

You can think of this like us eating something absolutely delicious at a restaurant, going home and doing a ton of research on similar recipes, testing and dialing in the specifics, and producing our very own replication of deliciousness.

We are calling this adventure Tiny Model. Tiny Model is a collaboration between Alex Clemmer and Molly Jones. Our goal is simple, we want to build this model step-by-step, starting with the basics and dialing in the math together, so you can see how the dessert gets made without getting lost in jargon. We’ve seen firsthand that people generally misunderstand polling and models (Molly included!) and we simply cannot let that continue.

Over the last decade or so, polls have lost their magic, leaving everyone feeling blindsided on election night. We will dig into why those mistakes happen so you can read headlines with clarity and speak with authority around your kitchen counter.

Whether you are a seasoned statistician, a campaign staffer stressing about their vote goal, or someone who has never heard the term “the generic ballot”, we’ve got something for you. Send us your burning questions, call us out when we get too wonky, and pull up a stool with us as we work through everything.